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China’s Economic Shift: Moving Away From Global Integration
We’re going to spend December looking ahead at 2024’s prospects. We have an optimistic outlook for many global markets: in coming weeks we’ll describe why we’re bullish on Japan and India in particular, as well as giving our outlook on the United States. But today we’ll start with perhaps the Read more…
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Bull or Bear? Why It Can Make Sense To Be Bearish On The Market, But Bullish On Individual Companies
Read more on Guild’s Substack.
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The Markets This Week — 20 January
Above, we noted the potential political consequences of inflation. Certainly, inflation, and erosion of real wages, is a primary element in the electorate’s increasing dissatisfaction with the current administration. It is not the only one, however. In many metropolitan areas, including those that saw protests in favor of police reform Read more…
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The Markets This Week — 13 January
Looming higher rates — and now, the looming run-off of the Fed balance sheet — have finally begun to penetrate market consciousness, with the result that the sell-off which had been happening “under the hood” spread more widely and visibly to the major indices. As usual, the median stock has Read more…
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Guild Basic Needs Index — Still Hitting Record Highs
About the Guild Basic Needs Index Guild Investment Management has long believed that the existing indices used to measure cost of living changes in the United States are inadequate and misleading. For instance, the widely quoted inflation index, the Consumer Price Index, is currently based on data collected from spending Read more…
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Professional Money Managers, Retail Traders, and Everybody In Between Needs a Plan
Having a strategy for each outcome is the key to getting through the confusion. In one environment, “Cash is king.” Yet, in a different (and quite possible) environment where the purchasing power of the currency is declining, cash provides the opposite of security. High growth at a high multiple has Read more…
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Climate Change Debate Rages — The Investment Climate, That Is
A big debate is raging about the type of inflationary cycle the world is experiencing. How much higher? For how long? Have we peaked? Is the Fed right? Will the purchasing power of retirement savings collapse? In general, markets prefer clarity to uncertainty and confusion. Markets look for leadership, trends, Read more…
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Finding Opportunity Beyond the U.S.
In recent letters, we’ve written about the investment opportunities we see emerging outside the United States. This week, we’ll describe two: Japan and South Korea. (Next week, we’ll follow up with Hong Kong and India). Japan The Nikkei index is recovering to highs not seen since the early 90s, signaling Read more…
