Year Ahead Outlook
2024 Year Ahead: A Global Summary (And Monty’s Personal Notes)
The discussion surrounding the economic outlook for 2024 is multifaceted, with various factors influencing the global and United States economies. We are maintaining a bullish stance for 2024, despite potential slowdowns in global growth, particularly in China. Alongside China, Russia and several global commodity producers might experience a deceleration from Read more…
Year Ahead Outlook
Monty’s 2023 Economic Overview, Part 2: Japan, Commodities, and General Market Outlook
Japan The Bank of Japan has surprised global investors by widening the band of interest rates for its benchmark 10-year bond — something that hadn’t been expected until next year’s departure of its governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. The adjustment itself was slight, but it has outsized significance, because it suggests that Read more…
Year Ahead Outlook
2023 Year Ahead: Monty’s Economic Overview and Outlook, Part 1
We believe the beginning of 2023 will likely bring a recession and more stock-market declines — perhaps beginning between now and the end of January. Since this recession will likely end in late 2023 or early 2024, and the market will discount the economic upturn by 6–12 months, we think Read more…
Market Summary
2022: Shifting Risks and Opportunities
As we come closer to year end, U.S. markets remain, as of this writing, within a percentage point or two of their all-time highs. We have come a long way since the first reports of a new SARS-like virus began to percolate into public awareness in January 2020. The world Read more…
Market Summary
Risks and Opportunities in 2020
We see a number of macro themes acting on markets in the coming year: The policies of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the People’s Bank of China, and others, are supportive of global stock markets; A new president of Read more…
