China and Iran Deepen Ties A recent report in the Petroleum Economist provided some confidential details about the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement that Iran and China signed in 2016. The Iranian and Chinese foreign ministers met at the end of August to hammer out some of the accord’s details. According Read more
The Real Data Are Weaker Than China Will Admit China’s rise as an economic power has been good not just for Chinese businesses selling goods to the rest of the world; it has also been good for global businesses selling goods and services to China. Big U.S. companies have been Read more
For the past year, concern about the intensifying trade war between China and the United States has gone hand-in-hand with concern about the health of the Chinese economy. China’s dramatic rise as an economic power over the past two decades, and the deep interdependence of the global economy, means that Read more
Chinese Banks: No Danger Now, But Watch Carefully On the fringes of the Chinese financial system, signs of stress continue to appear, so far restricted to some small banks and trust companies. The central government is continuing its efforts to unwind the excesses that built up after 2009, when it Read more
Market summary. The U.S. stock market continues its rally, with greater prospects for a friendly Federal Reserve, and relief over the settlement of possible trade troubles with Mexico – at least for now. The amelioration of these overhangs and pessimism causes us to continue to be bullish on U.S. stocks, Read more
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more
Executive Summary 1. Deflationary tech is here to stay. In his May press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited what he believed were “transitory factors” that resulted in a low inflation print over the past 12 months. Although many economists and officials talk about inflation data as if they were Read more
Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture Just as markets seemed to be happily pricing in a resolution to the yearlong trade conflict between China and the United States, fresh difficulties have emerged, throwing the outcome into doubt. Global stock markets swooned in response to the tweets… a Read more
That Keeps Us Bullish: Central Banks Are In Easing Mode, Emerging Markets Still Looking Good Last week, we wrote that we see the possibility that finally, after years of underperformance, the stars might be beginning to align for emerging markets in 2019. Overarchingly, here’s what emerging markets need to see Read more
In the period since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. stock market has moved ahead — while emerging-market stocks have spent almost a decade basically treading water. Emerging Markets Have Underperformed the U.S. In the Post-Crisis Period Source: Bloomberg LLP For a time, beginning partway through 2016, the Read more
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