Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of Read more
In early November, we wrote about the rise of state actors in cybercrime. pointing out the particular interests and strategies of Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China in their attacks on U.S. targets. A few days ago, The Wall Street Journal reported on a new cybersecurity assessment of the U.S. Read more
California Wildfires Our letter is slightly abbreviated this week, as several of Guild’s staff have been affected by the southern California wildfires. We are all safe, although many friends and family members have lost their homes; thank you for your concern and calls. Our thoughts and prayers go out to Read more
For several years we have been alerting our readers to the dangers posed by the over-leverage of the Chinese financial system. Eventually this over-leverage could result in a financial crisis within China. Direct contagion would be limited because China’s financial system is largely separate from the rest of the world’s, Read more
The U.S. Economy and Stock Market Fundamentally, the U.S. economy continues to be strong, and recent data indicate that the trend will continue. Fundamental stock market indicators are bullish. Corporate profit growth is strong, exceeding 23% for the first six months. Strong corporate profits are positive and correlated with stock Read more
The Yuan’s Falling, and the Market’s Not Panicking The steep drop in the value in U.S. dollar terms of the Chinese yuan contributed a lot to the difficulties experienced by the U.S. stock market in 2015 and 2016. The yuan’s initial sharp devaluation in early August, 2015 caused the S&P Read more
Let’s Make A Deal, China Edition Since the correction that began in late February, the U.S. stock market has been laboring under many fears. These fears fall into two basic categories — the rational and the irrational. A fear can be rational or irrational on its face; no one would Read more
We’ve been expressing our positive view about Vietnam as a favored investment destination in emerging markets since last June. Since then, the Ho Chi Minh Index has appreciated more than 50% in U.S. dollar terms. Source: Bloomberg Stock market rallies require a combination of economic and financial fundamentals followed by Read more
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