Rising inflation expectations may be even more important for investors than rising inflation. These expectations are forcing individual investors and money managers to include a new factor in their models and strategies that has been absent for the better part of two generations. Notably, expectations are essentially aspects of human Read more
Many commodities have boomed, driven by a confluence of forces: ongoing monetary and fiscal stimulus; accelerating post-pandemic global economic growth; long-term underinvestment in commodity production capacity; pandemic-related supply chain and shipping disruptions; the rise of sustainability metrics for public companies; the push for decarbonization and the electrification of the global Read more
As we continue to lap the initial stages of the pandemic, a lot of numbers are going to start showing year-over-year peaks: GDP, earnings growth, inflation. Looking forward, everything may start to look like deceleration — and since the market is a discounting mechanism that looks out to the future, Read more
Last week we wrote about the advent of central bank digital currencies, outlining the motivations that governments and central banks have for upstaging the rise of decentralized crypto networks such as bitcoin and Ethereum. This week we’ll take a look at a trend in communication from fiscal and monetary authorities, Read more
The overall market indices in the U.S. have moved sideways, near all-time highs. Many former high-flyers have corrected, with formerly exuberant cryptos and SPACs registering volatility and declines, suggesting that the market is already experiencing a sector by sector correction. The S&P 500 may see more correction soon, perhaps registering Read more
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general have reclaimed the imagination of the investing public, especially as crypto has enjoyed another of its periodic spectacular runs since late last year. Belatedly, mainstream analysts are beginning to note what we told a crowd at the Las Vegas MoneyShow three years ago — digital Read more
While we remain bullish on the U.S. market longer-term, the market is obviously ready for a normal correction. This correction may only be a 5% pullback, or it may be slightly more. Therefore we have held some cash and short positions in order to hedge out the risk and provide Read more
As we noted last week, we believe that as 2021 progresses, we will have a drumbeat of increasing analyst expectations for GDP growth and economic activity. The past year’s pandemic-driven economic gyrations have been so severe that economists and macro strategists — who as a group are not the most Read more
Countries We Like We are bullish on the U.S., Japan, Korea, and India, and we favor the industries mentioned below. We are optimistic on the remainder of 2021, and believe that GDP growth in the U.S. will exceed analysts’ expectations, and that they will spend the year playing catch-up. Market Read more
A trend has emerged: the research departments of the big brokerage houses are gradually increasing their estimates for U.S. GDP growth in 2021. Last week, Bank of America raised its full-year target from 6.5% to 7%. Although Goldman Sachs has kept its full-year target at 7.5%, this week it pulled Read more
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