The U.S. Market The rotation continues, and for a few more months one industry after another may see a fall in stock prices while the broad indices move ahead very slowly or rotates sideways. Interest rates will rise, but as long as five-year bond yields stay below the CPI, we Read more
Reading time: 3 minutes For many years, Guild has compiled and tracked a neutral inflation index which we call the Guild Basic Needs Index™ (GBNI). We designed it to be a simple analysis of the real state of the inflation experienced by consumers — an unchanging basket, unmanipulated by rebalancings, Read more
Reading time: 3 minutes Emerging markets, like the rest of global stock markets, have enjoyed a torrid rise since the pandemic bottom just over a year ago. That rise was reinvigorated in late October and early November as word filtered into markets that covid vaccines had proven effective in accelerated Read more
Reading time: 4 minutes The U.S. Market The U.S. is undergoing a rolling correction as industry after industry corrects and then stabilizes. Higher interest rates will benefit some industries more than others, and the key is that the industries most benefitted by higher rates are only benefitted as long as Read more
The Fed’s press conferences in the era of “money printer go brrrrrr” are often derided as “nothingburgers,” but of course they are still required listening and contain important information. Nothing in Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday press conference was surprising to us, but it served to underscore our convictions about (1) Read more
We note that interest rates are now above where they were when the pandemic began; the economy is sitting on many trillions of newly-created dollars; and analysts are vying for more aggressive 2020 GDP growth targets. Even the Federal Reserve is raising its growth targets, and while the majority of Read more
In the blink of an eye last spring, half the American workforce found themselves doing their jobs remotely. In spite of the rollout of vaccines and the rollback of pandemic behavioral restrictions in many places, that shift is still largely intact. In the long term, perhaps a quarter of the Read more
We believe that 10-year rates will rise above 2% over the course of 2021; U.S. core inflation will move towards 3%, and total inflation (including the more volatile food and energy) towards 4%. In the context of a rising dollar, we are not bullish on emerging markets as a group. Read more
The year since the advent of the covid pandemic has been unprecedented — to such an extent that the word “unprecedented” has become a cliché. Some readers may remember Alvin Toffler’s 1970 book Future Shock, which diagnosed the cultural disorientation that he identified and predicted would be a side-effect of Read more
A lot of “bubble talk” is making the rounds. We concur with the recently published opinion of Ray Dalio, who sees bubbles in certain areas of emerging technology stocks, but not in the market as a whole. Market valuations are getting elevated, but are not in a bubble; stock prices Read more
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