Federal Reserve
Markets This Week: Fed Messaging Leaves Market Guessing
The Fed “We still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” Jerome Powell, Nov 2 2022 By one significant measure, the Fed has succeeded. In the wake of the pandemic fiscal Read more…
Capex
Market Cracks and the Rocky Return to What Used to Be Normal
Investors with eyes riveted on upcoming CPI data have had to make a few glances across the Atlantic to the financial (and perhaps soon-to-be-political) trainwreck in the UK. The wreck has centered on UK pension funds that had leveraged themselves in order to meet actuarial targets rendered impossible by a Read more…
Europe
The Bull vs Bear Battle
We’ve been planning for a few weeks to write a brief rundown of the case to be made on each side of the market, bull vs. bear. The market’s pullback from its recent high, though, which began on August 16, is strengthening the bears’ case. The remarks of Fed Chair Read more…
Federal Reserve
Your Expense Receipts Are Giving You More Information Than the Fed, the Government, or the Financial Media
Although we manage investment portfolios for our clients, we also view part of our vocation as being financial educators — something which, through our writing and our media appearances, we’ve been doing for almost as long as our firm has been in existence. We believe investors have a right to Read more…
Federal Reserve
The Bear Case
Last month we told you that it was “time for a bear market playbook.” We noted that even though there are many extraordinary geopolitical, economic, and financial events unfolding in the world, the central fact was simpler. The Fed is tightening financial conditions, raising rates and draining liquidity by allowing Read more…
Automation
Jobs & Robots
Yesterday, Wednesday, June 1, saw the publication of April JOLTS data – “job openings and labor turnover” — by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This report is one of the key data sources evaluated by the Fed as it monitors the U.S. employment situation; remember that its dual mandate is Read more…
Federal Reserve
Market Desperately Seeking Reason To Bounce
First, let’s touch on the inflation level revealed by the Guild Basic Needs Index [GBNI] — our in-house, real-world inflation measure which we compile from a simple set of data series covering consumer expenses for food, shelter, clothing, and transportation. We had to adjust the x-axis on our graph: year-on-year, Read more…
Federal Reserve
The Earnings Recession Has Arrived: Is the Economic Recession Coming Next?
We say it often and we will say it again: earnings are the mother’s milk of stock prices. On a market-wide basis, a flat or declining earnings trend almost invariably accompanies a flat or declining trend in stock prices. This doesn’t mean that investors should go completely to cash (particularly Read more…
