The U.S. Poor manufacturing data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) sent markets down last Monday morning — or at least, that was the excuse for October market pessimism, in a month which is historically the year’s most volatile. We agree with the analysts — especially the inestimable Tony Read more
The U.S. U.S. markets are entering a typically volatile and unproductive seasonal period, marked in this case by the emergence of new political drama surrounding potential impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. Tactical traders may seek to take advantage of seasonal weakness. For our part, we continue to remain longer-term Read more
The U.S. This week brought another development in an obscure corner of the market — overnight lending, which banks rely on to meet funding needs. Observers had noted for some time that Fed tightening had been draining liquidity from the system; a confluence of funding needs created a shortfall and Read more
Market Summary The U.S. Outside the view of most individual investors, a “quant quake” erupted as concentrated hedge-fund bets in momentum growth stocks were challenged by a sudden swing towards value stocks and cyclicals. The indexes were placid, but many observers wondered if this might presage an imminent end Read more
The U.S. After a somewhat volatile August, U.S. stocks remain in the trading range where they have been for the past several months, as trade worries converge with recession fears. After the much-watched inversion of the two- to ten-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, financial news was full of recession Read more
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. market is still in a correction or sideways mode, with both macro news and fears in evidence, as well as seasonal effects. We are neither as pessimistic as some news media have become, nor are we extremely enthusiastic at the present juncture. We Read more
The U.S. A correction is underway in U.S. stocks, as stock and bond markets price in trade war and recession risk and investors seek safe havens. We remind readers that part of the generally accepted bullish thesis at the beginning of the year was that a more accommodative Fed was Read more
Market Summary The U.S.: Stocks, Gold, Cryptos Since we wrote last week, a trifecta of disappointing Fed communication, trade-war escalation, and self-reinforcing recession fears have accompanied an S&P 500 decline of about 4.7% as of this writing, and a strong rally in bonds (as interest rates decline) and gold. Read more
The U.S. Earnings season in the U.S. is in full swing. While earnings growth has stalled after the tax-break driven pace of growth that was enjoyed in 2018, it remains broadly within the trend of growth that has followed the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Source: Bloomberg, LLP Of course, there Read more
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. stock markets advanced rapidly in June, finally rising to new all-time highs. With the S&P 500 at the top of its trend channel, and several technical signals suggesting that it is overbought, a near-term correction would be normal. In our more active strategies, Read more
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