Market Summary The U.S. The S&P 500’s June rally has extended into July. Although the U.S. market remains strong, it is also somewhat anxiously focused on the Federal Reserve and on trade developments. We believe that the fundamental supports of the rally are still firmly in place. The U.S. Read more
The U.S. With a truce in the U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. stock market has risen to new all-time highs. We’re now on the cusp of earnings season, which will begin in about two weeks. U.S. and global data such as PMI reports have recently been signaling possible slowdowns in Read more
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. stock market is having a modest pullback after touching old highs. Given the global backdrop of central banks and indebted governments with no appetite for higher rates or stronger currencies, we believe that stocks will have a long-term upward bias, supported by low Read more
Executive Summary 1. We’re long-term bulls on India. A recent U.S. action rescinded some tariff exemptions that India had enjoyed as a developing nation. We don’t feel this is a significant event, and anticipate that the friendly relationship between the U.S. and Indian administrations will continue. We see policy continuity Read more
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more
Market Summary The U.S. economy is much stronger than some of the media’s pessimistic reports. January was affected by weather and the after-effects of the government shutdown. Since that time, U.S. economic growth has improved; we remain optimistic that the U.S. economy will grow by at least 2.4% in 2019. Read more
Market Summary Bullish news came Wednesday from the Federal Reserve, at which Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no further rate increases in 2019, and a single rate increase in 2020. We noted in last week’s letter that many global central banks are currently supportive of stock markets, and that includes Read more
Executive Summary 1. The Trump administration deepens its drive for transparent healthcare pricing. In February, the Trump administration asked for comments on a proposed rule with potentially vast effects on the entire U.S. healthcare sector. A rule that came into effect in January already required hospitals to make their list Read more
The U.S. Economy and Markets In spite of slight deceleration from the GDP growth rate posted in 2018, the U.S. economy continues to be strong, and we anticipate that as 2019 unfolds, growth will strengthen. U.S. markets have rapidly recovered from their fourth-quarter swoon, and while we believe that Read more
U.S. and World Outlook As we noted last week, the U.S. economy is still strong; the market fears that accompanied the sharp late-2018 correction are beginning to dissipate slightly, and investors are showing themselves willing to hunt for bargains. Some stocks have obviously reset to more attractive price levels; we Read more
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