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  • Market Commentary
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  • Portfolio Management
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  • Market Commentary
    • Global Market Commentary
    • Guild Basic Needs Index
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    • About Us
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What is a fiduciary?
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Oil

Earnings

Welcome to October

The midterms will fill the void between now and the start of earnings season, but they are not among the three things that at the moment, perhaps, are most influential in strengthening or hurting the attractiveness of stocks. We’d say those three things are the bond market, earnings, and oil Read more

By Rudolph von Abele, 3 daysOctober 1, 2026 ago
Earnings

You Can Give Up Modelling War Outcomes, But Not Energy Prices

On one point, the competing analysts of Wall Street agree: this is a banner year for corporate profits, with S&P 500 earnings on track to rise by roughly a third. On what comes next, they part ways. (Strategists tend to be moderate in their targets, so we wouldn’t expect anyone Read more

By Rudolph von Abele, 1 weekSeptember 24, 2026 ago
Earnings

A World Growing in Unison Needs Cheaper Oil

Nearly every economy on earth is growing, and American companies are earning far more than anyone expected in January. Analysts now see S&P 500 earnings per share rising 29% this year over last, up from about 13% when the year began. Stocks have not kept pace; the S&P 500 sits Read more

By Rudolph von Abele, 2 weeksSeptember 17, 2026 ago
China

China’s Eternally Postponed “Rebalancing”

Xi Jinping arrives in Washington later this month; when the two presidents met in Beijing in May, Xi reached rhetorically for the “Thucydides Trap” — national security scholar Graham Allison’s framing of a rising power and an established one stumbling toward an unnecessary and accidental conflict. He may reach for Read more

By Rudolph von Abele, 3 weeksSeptember 10, 2026 ago
Federal Reserve

Quiet Bull Markets In Real Things

We believe great financial advice starts with truly understanding your goals, needs, and circumstances. Schedule a meeting with our Client Relations Director to discover if Guild Investment Management has a solution that will work for you. This week we offer some thoughts inspired by our colleague, the redoubtable Larry Jeddeloh Read more

By Rudolph von Abele, 5 monthsMay 21, 2026 ago
Canada

The Western Hemisphere Is Blessed: North America Especially

By Rudolph von Abele, 5 monthsApril 30, 2026 ago
Iran

Strait Talk: Bull and Bear Scenarios

By Rudolph von Abele, 6 monthsApril 2, 2026 ago
Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets at the Crossroads: Opportunity, Risk, and the Iran War

By Rudolph von Abele, 6 monthsMarch 26, 2026 ago
China

The Great Game, 21st Century Edition

By Rudolph von Abele, 7 monthsMarch 12, 2026 ago
Artificial Intelligence

Are Hydrocarbons Becoming “Ownable” Again?

By Rudolph von Abele, 1 yearSeptember 25, 2025 ago

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