In last week’s commentary, we briefly discussed the destruction and fire sale of a large, highly leveraged hedge fund portfolio called Situational Awareness that was run by a smart 20-something year old. The fund was eyeball-deep in the AI trade; long all the important inputs AI requires (mainly semiconductors), and
Very little has happened in markets these past few weeks that will alter the trajectory of artificial intelligence; a lot has happened regarding the financial market frenzy surrounding it. Here are three items: What is that list? It is just a sample of how when markets are very extended and
Last week, Eli Lilly (LLY) announced that it would buy a development-stage psychedelics biopharma, AtaiBeckley, for roughly $2.8 billion in cash now, and a potential $1 billion more if Atai meets development and regulatory milestones. It may sound like a big number, but it is a drop in the bucket
We were surprised to read that Wall Street has never carried higher expectations into an earnings season than it is carrying into this one — recession rebounds aside. The bottom-up consensus (that is, analysts’ company-by-company estimates, added up) calls for S&P 500 earnings to grow 26.2% from a year ago,
If you strip the AI rally down to what the money is actually buying, you finally find transformers, high-voltage switchgear, copper, industrial-scale cooling, gas turbines, and data centers whose power draw rivals that of a midsize country — a build-out that Goldman Sachs estimates at roughly $7.6 trillion between 2026
Happy Fourth of July to all our readers! Here’s our patriotic but unsentimental analysis of where we stand midway through 2026, why we think it makes sense to keep betting on America, and how you should be thinking about market risks and dynamics. You can watch the video here and
For most of the past decade, “tokenization,” in the minds of most investors, was in the same category as 2017’s meme coins and 2021’s million-dollar cartoon JPEGs of apes — a silly distraction in a then-madly exuberant fringe market, easy to wave away. If that’s still your view, it needs
This Friday, June 12, SpaceX — now enlarged by the recent merger with Elon Musk’s xAI and the X platform — begins trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. At the indicated initial pricing of $135 per share, the offering raises roughly $75 billion and implies a market value
There is a particular kind of chart that tends to make us equal parts pleased and uneasy: the parabola. Lines that bend skyward at an accelerating rate are exhilarating to own, painful to watch from the sidelines, and miserable to time, because the same steepness that rewards you on the
We all know that markets can climb walls of worry and brush off bad news even while the front pages scream about war and sanctions, and contrarian pundits worry about (or gloat over) the prospect of dollar collapse. The past several months have been a textbook illustration. The conflict with
We believe great financial advice starts with truly understanding your goals, needs, and circumstances. Schedule a meeting with our Client Relations Director to discover if Guild Investment Management has a solution that will work for you. This week we offer some thoughts inspired by our colleague, the redoubtable Larry Jeddeloh
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